Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN) DCF Valuation
Transparent DCF models put Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN)'s fair value in a range of $87.82 – $128.98 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $178.10 sits above that range — by these conservative assumptions it looks richly valued; the reverse-DCF below is the better lens for a high-growth name.
Reverse DCF: at today's $178.10, the market is pricing in roughly +9.9%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of -1.2%. The price is betting on acceleration above its track record.
Current Price
$178.10
Fair-Value Range
$87.82 – $128.98
Market-Implied Growth
+9.9%/yr
vs -1.2% 5Y actual
ALGN DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $499.6M · 0.07B shares · net cash $1.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$128.98
-27.6% vs $178.10
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $178.10; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $157 | $164 | $173 | $183 | $196 |
| 9.0% | $137 | $142 | $147 | $154 | $162 |
| 10.0% | $121 | $125 | $129 | $134 | $139 |
| 11.0% | $109 | $112 | $115 | $118 | $122 |
| 12.0% | $99.74 | $102 | $104 | $106 | $109 |
About Align Technology, Inc.
Align Technology, Inc. is a medical technology enterprise that develops, produces, and markets its leading products: Invisalign transparent dental aligners and iTero digital intraoral scanners, along with related services. These offerings serve a wide range of dental professionals, including orthodontists, general dentists, and those specializing in restorative and cosmetic dentistry. The company's operations are divided into two main business units: "Clear Aligner" and "Scanners and Services." The Clear Aligner segment offers a variety of solutions. Its comprehensive products include the full Invisalign treatment for teenage patients, designed to address complex orthodontic needs such as mandibular advancement, patient compliance tracking, and managing tooth eruption. It also features specialized Invisalign First Phase I and Phase 2 packages for younger children, typically aged seven to ten, who have mixed dentition (a combination of primary and permanent teeth). Beyond these, the segment provides non-comprehensive aligner options like Invisalign moderate, lite, express, and Invisalign Go. Additional non-case products include retention devices, fees for Invisalign training, and sales of ancillary items such as cleaning materials and adjustment tools used by dental practitioners during treatment. The Scanners and Services segment centers around the iTero scanner, a unified hardware platform offering various software applications for both restorative and orthodontic procedures. It supplies specialized restorative software to general dentists, prosthodontists, periodontists, and oral surgeons, as well as distinct software for orthodontists to manage digital patient records, perform diagnoses, and facilitate the fabrication of printed models and retainers. This segment also provides computer-aided design and manufacturing (CAD/CAM) services, along with supplementary products like disposable covers for the scanner wand and iTero models and dies. Furthermore, it includes third-party scanners and digital scan solutions, the Invisalign Outcome Simulator (a chair-side and cloud-based application for the iTero scanner), the Invisalign Progress Assessment tool, and TimeLapse technology, which enables clinicians to compare a patient's historical 3D scans against current data. Align Technology distributes its products worldwide, with a strong presence in the United States, Switzerland, and China. Founded in 1997, the company is headquartered in Tempe, Arizona.
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Medical - Devices
- CEO
- Joseph Hogan