TGM's two-stage DCF values Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc. (AIT) between $207.38 and $383.16 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $277.48. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.4%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$338.39 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +16.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.4% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 9.1%/yr | 9.4% | $207.38 |
| Base case | 12.1%/yr | 8.4% | $277.48 |
| Optimistic | 15.1%/yr | 7.4% | $383.16 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 28, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $268.24 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$338.39
Market-Implied Growth
+16.9%/yr
vs +15.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$207.38 – $383.16
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for AIT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $403.5M · 0.04B shares · net debt $188.1M
Estimated Fair Value
$277.48
-18.0% vs $338.39
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 12.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $338.39; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4% | $350 | $386 | $430 | $487 | $564 |
| 7.4% | $287 | $310 | $338 | $372 | $414 |
| 8.4% | $243 | $259 | $277 | $300 | $326 |
| 9.4% | $210 | $221 | $235 | $250 | $268 |
| 10.4% | $184 | $193 | $203 | $214 | $227 |
