Why we don't show a single “fair value” for AIFU
Even the conservative scenario ($21.92) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$10.32 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -19.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 10.0% | $21.92 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 9.0% | $27.03 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 8.0% | $36.48 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $2.88 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$10.32
Market-Implied Growth
-19.3%/yr
vs -3.0% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$27.03
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for AIFU (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $10.6M · 0.01B shares · net debt $3.6M
Estimated Fair Value
$27.03
+161.9% vs $10.32
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $10.32; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $33.13 | $35.89 | $39.27 | $43.48 | $48.89 |
| 8.0% | $27.93 | $29.81 | $32.03 | $34.70 | $37.95 |
| 9.0% | $24.11 | $25.47 | $27.03 | $28.84 | $30.99 |
| 10.0% | $21.20 | $22.21 | $23.35 | $24.66 | $26.16 |
| 11.0% | $18.89 | $19.67 | $20.54 | $21.52 | $22.63 |
