Why we don't show a single “fair value” for AFYA
Even the conservative scenario ($50.59) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$13.31 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -17.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.5% | $50.59 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.5% | $70.04 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $97.01 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $46.25 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$13.31
Market-Implied Growth
-17.5%/yr
vs +29.4% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$70.04
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for AFYA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $166.0M · 0.09B shares · net debt $179.2M
Estimated Fair Value
$70.04
+426.2% vs $13.31
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $13.31; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $92.70 | $105 | $121 | $144 | $179 |
| 6.5% | $72.70 | $80.05 | $89.24 | $101 | $117 |
| 7.5% | $59.41 | $64.24 | $70.04 | $77.11 | $85.94 |
| 8.5% | $49.96 | $53.34 | $57.28 | $61.93 | $67.50 |
| 9.5% | $42.90 | $45.37 | $48.20 | $51.45 | $55.24 |
