Why we don't show a single “fair value” for ADV
Even the conservative scenario ($62.31) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 12.5% | $62.31 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 11.5% | $70.34 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 10.5% | $84.66 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $2.59 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$27.37
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$70.34
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ADV (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $63.4M · 0.01B shares · net cash $227.6M
Estimated Fair Value
$70.34
+157.0% vs $27.37
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $27.37; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $78.84 | $81.94 | $85.49 | $89.57 | $94.32 |
| 10.5% | $71.96 | $74.32 | $76.97 | $79.96 | $83.38 |
| 11.5% | $66.45 | $68.30 | $70.34 | $72.62 | $75.17 |
| 12.5% | $61.95 | $63.42 | $65.04 | $66.81 | $68.79 |
| 13.5% | $58.20 | $59.40 | $60.70 | $62.12 | $63.68 |
