TGM's two-stage DCF values Addus HomeCare Corporation (ADUS) between $105.52 and $196.87 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $141.95. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.4%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$113.33 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +7.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.4% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 9.7%/yr | 9.4% | $105.52 |
| Base case | 12.7%/yr | 8.4% | $141.95 |
| Optimistic | 15.7%/yr | 7.4% | $196.87 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $120.40 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$113.33
Market-Implied Growth
+7.4%/yr
vs +24.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$105.52 – $196.87
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ADUS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $103.3M · 0.02B shares · net debt $89.7M
Estimated Fair Value
$141.95
+25.3% vs $113.33
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 12.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $113.33; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4% | $180 | $198 | $221 | $251 | $291 |
| 7.4% | $147 | $159 | $173 | $191 | $213 |
| 8.4% | $124 | $132 | $142 | $153 | $167 |
| 9.4% | $107 | $113 | $120 | $128 | $137 |
| 10.4% | $93.23 | $97.83 | $103 | $109 | $116 |
