TGM's two-stage DCF values Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) between $196.05 and $361.91 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $261.97. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.3%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$277.62 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +12.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.3% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 7.9%/yr | 9.3% | $196.05 |
| Base case | 10.9%/yr | 8.3% | $261.97 |
| Optimistic | 13.9%/yr | 7.3% | $361.91 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $317.27 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$277.62
Market-Implied Growth
+12.3%/yr
vs +14.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$196.05 – $361.91
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ADP (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $4.2B · 0.40B shares · net debt $734.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$261.97
-5.6% vs $277.62
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 10.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $277.62; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | $331 | $365 | $407 | $462 | $537 |
| 7.3% | $271 | $293 | $319 | $352 | $393 |
| 8.3% | $229 | $244 | $262 | $283 | $308 |
| 9.3% | $198 | $209 | $222 | $236 | $253 |
| 10.3% | $174 | $182 | $192 | $202 | $214 |
