TGM's two-stage DCF values Adeia Inc. (ADEA) between $15.35 and $27.45 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $19.58. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$24.98 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +7.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.9% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.9% | $15.35 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 8.9% | $19.58 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 7.9% | $27.45 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $10.10 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$24.98
Market-Implied Growth
+7.1%/yr
vs -13.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$15.35 – $27.45
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ADEA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $159.7M · 0.11B shares · net debt $345.3M
Estimated Fair Value
$19.58
-21.6% vs $24.98
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $24.98; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.9% | $24.69 | $27.02 | $29.88 | $33.47 | $38.11 |
| 7.9% | $20.33 | $21.91 | $23.78 | $26.03 | $28.78 |
| 8.9% | $17.15 | $18.28 | $19.58 | $21.11 | $22.91 |
| 9.9% | $14.73 | $15.57 | $16.52 | $17.61 | $18.87 |
| 10.9% | $12.82 | $13.47 | $14.19 | $15.00 | $15.93 |
