TGM's two-stage DCF values ProFrac Holding Corp. (ACDC) between $2.03 and $6.27 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $4.03. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$4.75 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +19.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $2.03 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $4.03 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $6.27 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $8.83 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$4.75
Market-Implied Growth
+19.9%/yr
vs +24.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$2.03 – $6.27
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ACDC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $85.7M · 0.18B shares · net debt $1.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$4.03
-15.1% vs $4.75
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $4.75; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $5.77 | $6.40 | $7.13 | $7.97 | $8.94 |
| 10.5% | $4.36 | $4.84 | $5.38 | $6.00 | $6.70 |
| 11.5% | $3.24 | $3.61 | $4.03 | $4.50 | $5.02 |
| 12.5% | $2.33 | $2.63 | $2.95 | $3.32 | $3.72 |
| 13.5% | $1.57 | $1.81 | $2.08 | $2.36 | $2.68 |
