A meaningful DCF fair value isn't available for American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) — its free-cash-flow and net-debt profile makes a standard discounted-cash-flow model unreliable (common for loss-makers and high-net-debt or recently-public companies), and no analyst DCF is published. Explore your own assumptions with the editable model below.
What would today's price require?
$13.17 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +55.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.7% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 11.7% | N/A |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 10.7% | N/A |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 9.7% | N/A |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $245.50 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$13.17
Market-Implied Growth
+55.1%/yr
vs +25.6% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
N/A
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for AAL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $417.0M · 0.66B shares · net debt $27.3B
Estimated Fair Value
N/A
These assumptions imply no positive equity value — try a higher growth or lower discount rate.
