Is The Mosaic Company (MOS) Fairly Valued?
The Mosaic Company valuation review using P/E, fair value, revenue growth, EPS growth, net margin, and TGMCharts chart exhibits as of August 28, 2026.
By TGMCharts Research · Data as of · Updated
The Mosaic Company does not get a one-metric verdict. The stock trades at 124.21x trailing earnings and the analyst DCF (FMP) reference is $32.92, so the valuation read depends on whether growth and margins support that price.
The core evidence is the relationship between price, earnings, fair value, and business support. Five-year revenue CAGR is 3.63%, five-year EPS CAGR is -0.69%, and net margin is 0.36%. Those facts decide whether the multiple is defensible or stretched.
- The Mosaic Company closed at $23.60 on August 28, 2026.
- Trailing P/E is 124.21x and price-to-sales is 0.63x.
- Analyst DCF (FMP) is $32.92 with margin of safety at 39.50%.
- Five-year revenue CAGR is 3.63% and five-year EPS CAGR is -0.69%.
- Earnings yield is 0.81% and net margin is 0.36%.
Valuation Setup
The market price, model anchor, growth support, and profitability facts behind the valuation read.
Evaluating Fertilizer Equity Multiples Against Fundamental Support
Analyzing The Mosaic Company requires evaluating whether current operational metrics can justify its prevailing market valuation. At its close of $23.60 on August 28, 2026, the equity carries a trailing price-to-earnings multiple of 124.21x. This premium multiple must be weighed against an independent analyst DCF (FMP) reference model, which places the fair value at $32.92, implying a margin of safety of 39.50%.
To determine if the market's pricing is sustainable, this analysis examines the interaction between trailing multiples, growth rates, and margins. Relying on a single valuation ratio can obscure underlying risks; a holistic examination of cash flow trends and margin stability is necessary to assess whether the valuation is supported by fundamentals or driven by temporary sentiment.
Current compounder snapshot · MOS
Live supporting context; not part of the article's frozen 2026-08-28 evidence snapshot.
- Score
- 16/100
- 10Y CAGR
- 3.1%
- Median YoY
- -1.5%
- YoY volatility
- σ 28.9pp· choppy
- Quarters ≥ 20%
- 12 of 40
- Negative quarters
- 21
- Valuation vs own 10Y history
- P/S 0.7x · 10Y median 1.0x · 12th percentile · as of Aug 31, 2026
How this score is computed
- Quarters at or above 20%: 12 of 40 → 12 of 40 pts
- Steadiness (typical swing 28.9pp) → 4.4 of 25 pts
- Pace (median -1.5% YoY) → 0 of 20 pts
- Latest quarter (-6% YoY) → 0 of 15 pts
- Score: 16 of 100
Annualized revenue (TTM) · by quarter, last 40
Quarterly YoY revenue growth vs the 20% line
P/S multiple vs its 10Y median
Market Multiples and Owner Yield Dynamics
The market currently prices the firm at a sales multiple of 0.63x, which represents the price paid per dollar of top-line results. Concurrently, the trailing earnings yield stands at 0.81%, illustrating the cash generation available to equity holders relative to market capitalization. This yield provides a direct counterpoint to the high trailing earnings multiple.
MOS P/E ratio Chart
The trailing earnings multiple is the main valuation exhibit because it connects the market price to reported earnings.
Latest P/E ratio: 124.21x as of August 28, 2026.
A P/E ratio of 124.21x has to be judged against the company's five-year EPS CAGR of -0.69%. If the multiple is high while EPS support is ordinary, the valuation thesis becomes more dependent on investor confidence than on fresh earnings power.
MOS price-to-sales Chart
Price-to-sales gives a second valuation lens when margins and earnings can move around the cycle.
Latest price-to-sales ratio: 0.63x.
Price-to-sales at 0.63x is most useful beside net margin of 0.36%. A richer sales multiple is easier to defend when margin quality is durable rather than temporarily elevated.
Discount to Third-Party Intrinsic Estimates
Comparing the market price of $23.60 to the third-party analyst DCF (FMP) estimate of $32.92 reveals a positive margin of safety of 39.50%. This gap suggests that the current stock price sits below the estimated discounted cash flow value calculated by external analysts. However, this model represents just one perspective, and investors should evaluate the underlying assumptions on our dedicated DCF page.
The valuation at a glance
Each input on its own line: what the stock costs against earnings and sales, the model's fair value and how far price sits from it, and the growth and margins behind the business.
MOS earnings yield Chart
Earnings yield reframes valuation from an owner's-yield perspective rather than a multiple perspective.
Latest earnings yield: 0.81%.
The earnings yield of 0.81% is the counterweight to the P/E ratio. If the yield is thin relative to the quality and growth profile, the valuation case needs more help from future compounding.
Divergent Paths in Long-Term Revenue and Profit Expansion
The long-term operational trend shows a divergence between top-line expansion and bottom-line profitability. Over the past five years, the company achieved a revenue CAGR of 3.63%, demonstrating positive top-line growth. In contrast, the five-year EPS CAGR fell to -0.69%, indicating that profitability has not kept pace with sales expansion.
MOS revenue
Revenue history tests whether the valuation is being supported by real business expansion.
Five-year revenue CAGR: 3.63%. This is endpoint-to-endpoint from the fiscal years shown — a depressed start year can inflate it, so read it against the recent bars.
Revenue growth is the business-expansion evidence behind the valuation read. A five-year revenue CAGR of 3.63% helps show how much of the valuation story is coming from company growth instead of only multiple expansion.
MOS EPS
EPS history checks whether reported earnings are keeping pace with the market multiple.
Five-year EPS CAGR: -0.69%. This is endpoint-to-endpoint from the fiscal years shown — a depressed or negative start year can inflate it, so read it against the recent bars.
A five-year EPS CAGR of -0.69% is the clearest support figure for a P/E-based conclusion. If EPS growth slows while the multiple remains elevated, the article should become more cautious after refresh.
Profitability Compression and Sales Multiples
The relationship between sales multiples and net profitability highlights current efficiency challenges. The company's net margin stands at 0.36%, which must support the price-to-sales ratio of 0.63x. When profit margins are compressed, the business must generate significantly higher sales volumes to produce the net income required to sustain its valuation multiples.
MOS net margin
Net margin shows whether the company has enough profitability quality to support its valuation.
Net margin (TTM): 0.36%. The bars below are annual fiscal years.
Net margin of 0.36% is a quality signal, not a valuation verdict by itself. It matters because a premium multiple is more defensible when margins are structurally strong and less defensible when margins are peaking.
Conflicting Signals in the Intrinsic and Operational Data
The positive case rests on the positive five-year revenue CAGR of 3.63% and the fact that the current price is below the analyst DCF (FMP) reference of $32.92, offering a margin of safety of 39.50%. This suggests potential value if the company can restore historical profitability levels.
Conversely, the negative case highlights the high trailing P/E of 124.21x alongside a five-year EPS CAGR of -0.69% and a net margin of 0.36%. These metrics indicate that current earnings power is weak, making the current multiple difficult to sustain without a rapid operational turnaround.
Bull and bear case
Valuation support
- Five-year revenue CAGR of 3.63% and five-year EPS CAGR of -0.69% support the business case.
- Net margin of 0.36% is the quality check behind the multiple.
Valuation pressure
- A P/E ratio of 124.21x can become demanding if EPS growth slows.
- The analyst-DCF (FMP) margin of safety at 39.50% should change the valuation read if it deteriorates after refresh.
Key Metrics to Monitor for a Shift in Thesis
The outlook would change if the gap between the market price and the analyst DCF (FMP) reference of $32.92 narrows or widens significantly. Additionally, any improvement or further deterioration in the five-year EPS CAGR of -0.69% or the trailing net margin of 0.36% would require a reassessment of the stock's valuation support.
Synthesizing the Valuation and Operational Outlook
Ultimately, the valuation of The Mosaic Company is balanced between a supportive third-party intrinsic value estimate and weak trailing profitability metrics. For the valuation to hold, the company's positive top-line growth must translate into stronger earnings per share and improved net margins. Investors should monitor these metrics closely to determine if the business can support its current market pricing.
FAQ
Is MOS fairly valued?
The Mosaic Company trades at 124.21x trailing earnings, while the price gap versus the third-party DCF (FMP) estimate is 39.50%. Read those references alongside five-year revenue CAGR of 3.63% and five-year EPS CAGR of -0.69%; none is a standalone verdict.
What valuation metric matters most for MOS?
This article anchors on P/E, fair value, margin of safety, price-to-sales, earnings yield, revenue growth, and EPS growth. No single metric is treated as a recommendation.
How often should this MOS valuation view refresh?
Numbers here are as of August 28, 2026 — the note's dated snapshot. A note whose figures can no longer be verified against the company's reported data is corrected or unpublished rather than left stale.
What would change our mind
- A material move away from the analyst-DCF (FMP) reference of $32.92.
- A break in five-year EPS support, currently -0.69%.
- Margin quality drifting away from the latest net margin of 0.36%.
The bottom line
The Mosaic Company valuation research note from TGMCharts Research, grounded in a dated fundamentals snapshot, chart exhibits, and linked source facts.
Read next: MOS fundamentalsContinue with The Mosaic Company's full stock page.How we checked this researchShowHide
Data snapshot · By TGMCharts Research.
Every number in this note comes from data we compute and store ourselves from the company's reported figures, plus verbatim excerpts from its SEC filings. When a value isn't available we say so — we never fill gaps with estimates.
Latest filing excerpt
10-Q · filed 2026-08-05 · period 2026-06-30 · SEC EDGAR source
- “Gross margin for the three months ended June 30, 2026 decreased 55% compared to the same period of the prior year.”
- “The year-over-year increase was primarily driven by higher sales prices, which contributed approximately $120 million to net sales compared to the prior year period.”
- “This impact was partially offset by decreased sales volumes of approximately $90 million compared to the prior year period.”
- “Additionally, higher sales of other products, including rock and raw material sales, and freight revenue contributed approximately $40 million compared to the prior year period.”
Source pages
Exhibit sources
Research trail
Every number, checked
Every numeric or dated claim in this note was checked against our stored company data before publishing — each figure below links to the page it comes from.