Is Chevron Corporation (CVX) Fairly Valued?
Chevron Corporation valuation review using P/E, fair value, revenue growth, EPS growth, net margin, and TGMCharts chart exhibits as of June 26, 2026.
By TGMCharts Research / 5 min read / Data as of / Updated
Valuation read
Chevron Corporation does not get a one-metric verdict. The stock trades at 29.65x trailing earnings and the TGMCharts fair-value model is $175, so the valuation read depends on whether growth and margins support that price.
The core evidence is the relationship between price, earnings, fair value, and business support. Five-year revenue CAGR is 14.17%, five-year EPS CAGR is 27.46%, and net margin is 5.92%. Those facts decide whether the multiple is defensible or stretched.
What to watch
- A material move away from the fair-value anchor of $175.
- A break in five-year EPS support, currently 27.46%.
- Margin quality drifting away from the latest net margin of 5.92%.
From the latest filing
10-Q · filed 2026-05-07 · period 2026-03-31 · SEC EDGAR source
- “In first quarter 2026, earnings were adversely affected by $2.9 billion due to timing effects related to higher commodity prices in March 2026; however, these impacts are expected to unwind in future periods.”
- “upstream earnings increased by $254 million primarily due to increased sales volumes of $1.2 billion, partly offset by higher depreciation, depletion and amortization of $520 million, higher operating expenses of $260 million, and lower liquids realizations of $160 million.”
- “downstream earnings increased by $93 million primarily due to higher margins on refined product sales of $330 million, partly offset by a higher litigation reserve of $190 million.”
- “Three Month Periods Ended March 31, 2026 and 2025 International downstream earnings decreased by $1.2 billion primarily due to lower margins on refined product sales of $1.1 billion, including unfavorable timing effects, and higher operating expenses of $140 million, mainly from higher transportation costs.”
Key takeaways
- -Chevron Corporation closed at $171 on June 26, 2026.
- -Trailing P/E is 29.65x and price-to-sales is 1.83x.
- -Model fair value is $175 with margin of safety at 2.20%.
- -Five-year revenue CAGR is 14.17% and five-year EPS CAGR is 27.46%.
- -Earnings yield is 3.37% and net margin is 5.92%.
Valuation snapshot
The market price, model anchor, growth support, and profitability facts behind the valuation read.
Executive Summary
Analyzing the investment profile of Chevron Corporation requires evaluating whether its current market pricing is backed by adequate underlying profitability, historical expansion rates, and realistic model-derived benchmarks. As of June 26, 2026, the equity concluded trading at $171, carrying a trailing earnings multiple of 29.65x. This valuation sits alongside a quantitative model margin of safety calculated at 2.20%, establishing a baseline for examining the stock's fundamental durability.
Isolating a single valuation multiple fails to capture the broader fundamental picture. A thorough analysis must synthesize trailing earnings multiples, intrinsic value estimates, top-line sales ratios, owner yields, and historical compound expansion rates. When these distinct metrics align constructively, they provide a more robust justification for current market levels. Conversely, any divergence among these indicators suggests that a more conservative outlook is warranted.
Price And Multiple Context
Before determining whether the market's current appraisal is justified, we must first contextualize the premium investors are paying. The company's price-to-sales ratio stands at 1.83x while its earnings yield is positioned at 3.37%. Evaluating these metrics together prevents a narrow focus on the headline P/E multiple, integrating sales-based valuations and cash-generation yields into a single, comprehensive framework.
Supporting exhibit 2
Exhibit: CVX price history
The price chart shows whether the valuation question is being driven by recent share-price movement.
Latest close: $171 as of June 26, 2026.
CVX Price Chart
The close at $171 is the market anchor for this note. The fair-value model sits at $175, so the price chart helps separate a business-quality question from a market-entry-price question.
Primary exhibit
Exhibit: CVX P/E ratio history
The trailing earnings multiple is the main valuation exhibit because it connects the market price to reported earnings.
Latest P/E ratio: 29.65x as of June 26, 2026.
CVX CVX P/E ratio Chart
The trailing earnings multiple is the main valuation exhibit because it connects the market price to reported earnings.
A P/E ratio of 29.65x has to be judged against the company's five-year EPS CAGR of 27.46%. If the multiple is high while EPS support is ordinary, the valuation thesis becomes more dependent on investor confidence than on fresh earnings power.
Supporting exhibit 3
Exhibit: CVX price-to-sales history
Price-to-sales gives a second valuation lens when margins and earnings can move around the cycle.
Latest price-to-sales ratio: 1.83x.
CVX CVX price-to-sales Chart
Price-to-sales gives a second valuation lens when margins and earnings can move around the cycle.
Price-to-sales at 1.83x is most useful beside net margin of 5.92%. A richer sales multiple is easier to defend when margin quality is durable rather than temporarily elevated.
Fair Value And Margin Of Safety
Our model-derived intrinsic value serves as a systematic counterweight to prevailing market multiples. Currently, the calculated fair value is anchored at $175, representing a modest margin of safety of 2.20%. While this positive margin indicates the equity is technically undervalued, the narrow spread means the investment thesis relies heavily on sustained operational execution rather than a deep valuation discount.
Valuation evidence table
A compact cross-check of price, model value, growth, and profitability support.
Counterpoint exhibit 4
Exhibit: CVX earnings yield history
Earnings yield reframes valuation from an owner's-yield perspective rather than a multiple perspective.
Latest earnings yield: 3.37%.
CVX CVX earnings yield Chart
Earnings yield reframes valuation from an owner's-yield perspective rather than a multiple perspective.
The earnings yield of 3.37% is the counterweight to the P/E ratio. If the yield is thin relative to the quality and growth profile, the valuation case needs more help from future compounding.
Growth Support
Long-term valuation durability requires consistent expansion across both top-line revenue and per-share profitability. Over the past five years, the company achieved a compound annual revenue growth rate of 14.17% alongside a five-year compound annual EPS growth rate of 27.46%. These multi-year growth rates help determine if the current market multiple is supported by structural business expansion or if it is primarily sustained by multiple expansion.
Supporting exhibit 5
Exhibit: CVX revenue history
Revenue history tests whether the valuation is being supported by real business expansion.
Five-year revenue CAGR: 14.17%.
CVX revenue
Revenue history tests whether the valuation is being supported by real business expansion.
Revenue growth is the business-expansion evidence behind the valuation read. A five-year revenue CAGR of 14.17% helps show how much of the valuation story is coming from company growth instead of only multiple expansion.
Supporting exhibit 6
Exhibit: CVX EPS history
EPS history checks whether reported earnings are keeping pace with the market multiple.
Five-year EPS CAGR: 27.46%.
CVX EPS
EPS history checks whether reported earnings are keeping pace with the market multiple.
A five-year EPS CAGR of 27.46% is the clearest support figure for a P/E-based conclusion. If EPS growth slows while the multiple remains elevated, the article should become more cautious after refresh.
Margin Quality
Operating efficiency acts as the vital transmission mechanism converting top-line sales into tangible shareholder value. With a net margin of 5.92% evaluated alongside a price-to-sales ratio of 1.83x, we can assess the quality of the company's revenue streams. High-quality margins make a premium sales multiple easier to defend, whereas any signs of structural margin compression would weaken the support for current valuation levels.
Supporting exhibit 7
Exhibit: CVX net margin history
Net margin shows whether the company has enough profitability quality to support its valuation.
Latest net margin: 5.92%.
CVX net margin
Net margin shows whether the company has enough profitability quality to support its valuation.
Net margin of 5.92% is a quality signal, not a valuation verdict by itself. It matters because a premium multiple is more defensible when margins are structurally strong and less defensible when margins are peaking.
Bull/Bear Valuation Case
The constructive outlook relies on the company's five-year revenue and per-share growth trends maintaining their upward trajectory while net margin remains resilient, thereby justifying the current trailing multiple. Conversely, the cautious outlook highlights that the current trailing earnings multiple of 29.65x leaves little room for error if operational growth decelerates or if macroeconomic pressures squeeze historical margin levels.
Bull and bear case
Valuation support
- Five-year revenue CAGR of 14.17% and five-year EPS CAGR of 27.46% support the business case.
- Net margin of 5.92% is the quality check behind the multiple.
Valuation pressure
- A P/E ratio of 29.65x can become demanding if EPS growth slows.
- The model margin of safety at 2.20% should change the valuation read if it deteriorates after refresh.
What Would Change The View
This fundamental outlook would require revision if the underlying intrinsic value model undergoes a downward adjustment, if the market price diverges significantly from the $175 model anchor, or if the multi-year revenue and EPS growth trends begin to deteriorate. Because our analysis is tied to the daily database precompute, any shift in the fundamental ledger dated June 26, 2026 will automatically trigger a re-evaluation of the core thesis.
Final Research Read
In conclusion, evaluating Chevron Corporation requires reconciling its market-implied pricing with historical growth rates, margin structures, and model-derived fair value. A balanced assessment cannot rely on a single metric but must monitor how these variables interact over time. This research insight is constructed utilizing precomputed fundamentals and standardized chart pathways from TGMCharts, serving as general research context rather than personalized financial advice.
Research trail
Continue through the source pages behind this research note.
FAQ
Is CVX fairly valued?
Chevron Corporation trades at 29.65x trailing earnings with a model margin of safety of 2.20%. The cleanest read comes from comparing that valuation to five-year revenue CAGR of 14.17% and five-year EPS CAGR of 27.46%.
What valuation metric matters most for CVX?
This article anchors on P/E, fair value, margin of safety, price-to-sales, earnings yield, revenue growth, and EPS growth. No single metric is treated as a recommendation.
How often should this CVX valuation view refresh?
The article should refresh after the daily TGMCharts precompute job because the stored close, fair value, and claim ledger are dated to June 26, 2026.
Claim ledger
Every numeric or dated claim in this note was resolved from precomputed TGMCharts data before publishing.
More CVX research insights
Valuation
The Bear Case for Chevron (CVX)
Chevron Corporation screened on a expensive-and-slowing divergence: P/OCF is 1.3x its own five-year median while free cash flow has compounded at 39.67%.
Research snapshot
Extractable thesis
Chevron Corporation does not get a one-metric verdict. The stock trades at 29.65x trailing earnings and the TGMCharts fair-value model is $175, so the valuation read depends on whether growth and margins support that price.
Data snapshot: 2026-06-26 / byline: TGMCharts Research / article status: published