Is Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) Fairly Valued?
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company valuation review using P/E, fair value, revenue growth, EPS growth, net margin, and TGMCharts chart exhibits as of July 10, 2026.
By TGMCharts Research · Data as of · Updated
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company does not get a one-metric verdict. The stock trades at 36.06x trailing earnings and the analyst DCF (FMP) reference is $63.19, so the valuation read depends on whether growth and margins support that price.
The core evidence is the relationship between price, earnings, fair value, and business support. Five-year revenue CAGR is 3.38%, five-year EPS CAGR is -6.73%, and net margin is 1.34%. Those facts decide whether the multiple is defensible or stretched.
- Archer-Daniels-Midland Company closed at $80.41 on July 10, 2026.
- Trailing P/E is 36.06x and price-to-sales is 0.48x.
- Analyst DCF (FMP) is $63.19 with margin of safety at -21.41%.
- Five-year revenue CAGR is 3.38% and five-year EPS CAGR is -6.73%.
- Earnings yield is 2.77% and net margin is 1.34%.
Valuation Setup
The market price, model anchor, growth support, and profitability facts behind the valuation read.
Evaluating the Gap Between Market Price and Fundamental Support
Evaluating Archer-Daniels-Midland Company requires weighing the current market valuation against underlying business performance. The stock concluded trading at $80.41 on July 10, 2026, carrying a trailing earnings multiple of 36.06x. This price sits above the independent analyst-DCF (FMP) fair value reference of $63.19, representing a margin of safety of -21.41%.
This research note contextualizes these metrics by examining revenue expansion, net margin stability, and long-term earnings trends. If these operational indicators align, the prevailing multiple has a stronger foundation; if they diverge, the risk of a valuation correction increases.
Comparing the Sales Multiple and Owner Yield to the Earnings Multiple
To understand what investors are paying, we look beyond the headline price-to-earnings ratio. The market currently values the business at a price-to-sales ratio of 0.48x, which corresponds to an earnings yield of 2.77%. This yield provides an alternative perspective on the cash generation available to shareholders relative to the capital required to purchase the equity.
ADM P/E ratio Chart
The trailing earnings multiple is the main valuation exhibit because it connects the market price to reported earnings.
Latest P/E ratio: 36.06x as of July 10, 2026.
A P/E ratio of 36.06x has to be judged against the company's five-year EPS CAGR of -6.73%. If the multiple is high while EPS support is ordinary, the valuation thesis becomes more dependent on investor confidence than on fresh earnings power.
ADM price-to-sales Chart
Price-to-sales gives a second valuation lens when margins and earnings can move around the cycle.
Latest price-to-sales ratio: 0.48x.
Price-to-sales at 0.48x is most useful beside net margin of 1.34%. A richer sales multiple is easier to defend when margin quality is durable rather than temporarily elevated.
Assessing the Premium Relative to Independent Fair Value Benchmarks
The independent analyst-DCF (FMP) model establishes a reference price of $63.19, placing the market price at a premium that yields a margin of safety of -21.41%. This third-party benchmark serves as a structural anchor, highlighting the difference between current market sentiment and a discounted cash flow projection based on consensus assumptions.
The valuation at a glance
Each input on its own line: what the stock costs against earnings and sales, the model's fair value and how far price sits from it, and the growth and margins behind the business.
ADM earnings yield Chart
Earnings yield reframes valuation from an owner's-yield perspective rather than a multiple perspective.
Latest earnings yield: 2.77%.
The earnings yield of 2.77% is the counterweight to the P/E ratio. If the yield is thin relative to the quality and growth profile, the valuation case needs more help from future compounding.
Analyzing Five-Year Revenue and Earnings Per Share Trajectories
A sustainable valuation multiple requires operational growth to support the share price over time. Over the past five years, the compound annual revenue growth rate stands at 3.38%, showing moderate top-line expansion. However, the compound annual earnings per share growth rate over the same period contracted to -6.73%, indicating that profit growth has not matched sales gains.
ADM revenue
Revenue history tests whether the valuation is being supported by real business expansion.
Five-year revenue CAGR: 3.38%. This is endpoint-to-endpoint from the fiscal years shown — a depressed start year can inflate it, so read it against the recent bars.
Revenue growth is the business-expansion evidence behind the valuation read. A five-year revenue CAGR of 3.38% helps show how much of the valuation story is coming from company growth instead of only multiple expansion.
ADM EPS
EPS history checks whether reported earnings are keeping pace with the market multiple.
Five-year EPS CAGR: -6.73%. This is endpoint-to-endpoint from the fiscal years shown — a depressed or negative start year can inflate it, so read it against the recent bars.
A five-year EPS CAGR of -6.73% is the clearest support figure for a P/E-based conclusion. If EPS growth slows while the multiple remains elevated, the article should become more cautious after refresh.
Evaluating Net Profit Margin Durability Against the Sales Multiple
Profitability margins act as the critical transition point between top-line revenue and bottom-line earnings. The company operates with a thin net margin of 1.34%, which must be evaluated alongside the price-to-sales ratio of 0.48x. In low-margin industries, even minor fluctuations in operating costs can disproportionately impact net income and alter the trailing multiple.
ADM net margin
Net margin shows whether the company has enough profitability quality to support its valuation.
Net margin (TTM): 1.34%. The bars below are annual fiscal years.
Net margin of 1.34% is a quality signal, not a valuation verdict by itself. It matters because a premium multiple is more defensible when margins are structurally strong and less defensible when margins are peaking.
The Balance of Bullish Support and Bearish Pressures
The optimistic view relies on the positive five-year revenue CAGR of 3.38% and the potential for positive free cash flow trends to stabilize the balance sheet. Conversely, the cautious perspective points to the negative five-year EPS CAGR of -6.73% and the thin net margin of 1.34%, suggesting the current multiple of 36.06x leaves little room for operational missteps.
Bull and bear case
Valuation support
- Five-year revenue CAGR of 3.38% and five-year EPS CAGR of -6.73% support the business case.
- Net margin of 1.34% is the quality check behind the multiple.
Valuation pressure
- A P/E ratio of 36.06x can become demanding if EPS growth slows.
- The analyst-DCF (FMP) margin of safety at -21.41% should change the valuation read if it deteriorates after refresh.
Key Operational and Market Developments That Would Alter This View
Several monitorable developments could shift this fundamental outlook. A significant adjustment in the independent analyst-DCF (FMP) fair value from $63.19 would directly alter the margin of safety. Additionally, any stabilization or further deterioration in the five-year EPS CAGR of -6.73%, or a shift in the net margin from its current level of 1.34%, would require a re-evaluation of the stock's valuation risk.
Synthesizing the Fundamental Evidence and Valuation Outlook
In conclusion, the valuation of Archer-Daniels-Midland Company is balanced between moderate historical revenue expansion and contracting per-share earnings. With the market price trading above the analyst-DCF (FMP) reference, the business must improve its net margin of 1.34% to fundamentally support the current earnings multiple. This analysis serves as general research context and does not constitute personalized financial advice.
FAQ
Is ADM fairly valued?
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company trades at 36.06x trailing earnings with an analyst-DCF (FMP) margin of safety of -21.41%. The cleanest read comes from comparing that valuation to five-year revenue CAGR of 3.38% and five-year EPS CAGR of -6.73%.
What valuation metric matters most for ADM?
This article anchors on P/E, fair value, margin of safety, price-to-sales, earnings yield, revenue growth, and EPS growth. No single metric is treated as a recommendation.
How often should this ADM valuation view refresh?
We refresh this note after each daily market close, so the price, fair value, and every figure stay current. Numbers here are as of July 10, 2026.
What would change our mind
- A material move away from the analyst-DCF (FMP) reference of $63.19.
- A break in five-year EPS support, currently -6.73%.
- Margin quality drifting away from the latest net margin of 1.34%.
The bottom line
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company valuation research note from TGMCharts Research, grounded in precomputed fundamentals, chart exhibits, and a frozen claim ledger.
Read next: ADM fundamentalsContinue with Archer-Daniels-Midland Company's full stock page.How we checked this researchShowHide
Data snapshot · By TGMCharts Research.
Every number in this note comes from data we compute and store ourselves from the company's reported figures, plus verbatim excerpts from its SEC filings. When a value isn't available we say so — we never fill gaps with estimates.
Latest filing excerpt
10-Q · filed 2026-05-05 · period 2026-03-31 · SEC EDGAR source
- “Ag Services and Oilseeds revenues increased 2% to $16.0 billion, driven by higher sales prices ($625 million), partially offset by lower sales volumes ($299 million).”
- “Nutrition revenues decreased 1% to $1.8 billion.”
- “Total segment operating profit (a non-GAAP measure) increased $17 million from $747 million to $764 million driven by higher results in the Carbohydrate Solutions segment and the Nutrition segment, partially offset by lower results in the Ag Services and Oilseeds segment.”
- “Revenues increased $315 million to $20.5 billion, driven by higher sales prices ($743 million), partially offset by lower sales volumes ($428 million).”
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Every numeric or dated claim in this note was checked against our stored company data before publishing — each figure below links to the page it comes from.