Is Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) Fairly Valued?
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company valuation review using P/E, fair value, revenue growth, EPS growth, net margin, and TGMCharts chart exhibits as of August 19, 2026.
By TGMCharts Research · Data as of · Updated
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company does not get a one-metric verdict. The stock trades at 22.13x trailing earnings and the analyst DCF (FMP) reference is $79.08, so the valuation read depends on whether growth and margins support that price.
The core evidence is the relationship between price, earnings, fair value, and business support. Five-year revenue CAGR is 1.85%, five-year EPS CAGR is -6.73%, and net margin is 2.16%. Those facts decide whether the multiple is defensible or stretched.
- Archer-Daniels-Midland Company closed at $80.76 on August 19, 2026.
- Trailing P/E is 22.13x and price-to-sales is 0.48x.
- Analyst DCF (FMP) is $79.08 with margin of safety at -2.08%.
- Five-year revenue CAGR is 1.85% and five-year EPS CAGR is -6.73%.
- Earnings yield is 4.52% and net margin is 2.16%.
Valuation Setup
The market price, model anchor, growth support, and profitability facts behind the valuation read.
The Read
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company should be read as a valuation question with a specific burden of proof: does the market price have enough earnings, growth, and margin support to justify the multiple? The stock closed at $80.76 on August 19, 2026, trades at 22.13x trailing earnings, and shows an analyst-DCF (FMP) margin of safety of -2.08% — an independent reference, not a TGMCharts model output.
The answer cannot come from one ratio. This note treats P/E, fair value, price-to-sales, earnings yield, revenue growth, EPS growth, and margin quality as a linked evidence set. If those lines reinforce each other, the valuation can be defended with more confidence; if they split, the final read has to stay cautious.
Current compounder snapshot · ADM
Live supporting context; not part of the article's frozen 2026-08-19 evidence snapshot.
- Score
- 21/100
- 10Y CAGR
- 1.7%
- Median YoY
- 0.1%
- YoY volatility
- σ 13.5pp· uneven
- Quarters ≥ 20%
- 6 of 40
- Negative quarters
- 20
- Valuation vs own 10Y history
- P/S 0.5x · 10Y median 0.4x · 84th percentile · as of Aug 25, 2026
How this score is computed
- Quarters at or above 20%: 6 of 40 → 6 of 40 pts
- Steadiness (typical swing 13.5pp) → 15.4 of 25 pts
- Pace (median 0.1% YoY) → 0 of 20 pts
- Latest quarter (7% YoY) → 0 of 15 pts
- Score: 21 of 100
Annualized revenue (TTM) · by quarter, last 40
Quarterly YoY revenue growth vs the 20% line
P/S multiple vs its 10Y median
Price And Multiple Context
The price and multiple section asks what the market is paying before judging whether that price is justified. Price-to-sales is 0.48x and earnings yield is 4.52%, so the first chart group keeps the market price, P/E history, and sales multiple in the same frame rather than treating the headline P/E as the whole story.
ADM P/E ratio Chart
The trailing earnings multiple is the main valuation exhibit because it connects the market price to reported earnings.
Latest P/E ratio: 22.13x as of August 19, 2026.
A P/E ratio of 22.13x has to be judged against the company's five-year EPS CAGR of -6.73%. If the multiple is high while EPS support is ordinary, the valuation thesis becomes more dependent on investor confidence than on fresh earnings power.
ADM price-to-sales Chart
Price-to-sales gives a second valuation lens when margins and earnings can move around the cycle.
Latest price-to-sales ratio: 0.48x.
Price-to-sales at 0.48x is most useful beside net margin of 2.16%. A richer sales multiple is easier to defend when margin quality is durable rather than temporarily elevated.
Fair Value And Margin Of Safety
The fair-value section is a reference point beside the market multiple. The stored fair value comes from the analyst DCF (FMP) — an independent third-party model, not a TGMCharts output — at $79.08, with a margin of safety of -2.08%. Treat it as one input rather than a verdict: see the Archer-Daniels-Midland Company DCF page for TGMCharts' own scenario range, which can differ materially.
The valuation at a glance
Each input on its own line: what the stock costs against earnings and sales, the model's fair value and how far price sits from it, and the growth and margins behind the business.
ADM earnings yield Chart
Earnings yield reframes valuation from an owner's-yield perspective rather than a multiple perspective.
Latest earnings yield: 4.52%.
The earnings yield of 4.52% is the counterweight to the P/E ratio. If the yield is thin relative to the quality and growth profile, the valuation case needs more help from future compounding.
Growth Support
Growth support has to show up in both the top line and the per-share outcome. Five-year revenue CAGR is 1.85% and five-year EPS CAGR is -6.73%. The revenue and EPS exhibits sit here because this is where the valuation note decides whether the multiple is being supported by actual business expansion or mainly by investor willingness to pay more.
ADM revenue
Revenue history tests whether the valuation is being supported by real business expansion.
Five-year revenue CAGR: 1.85%. This is endpoint-to-endpoint from the fiscal years shown — a depressed start year can inflate it, so read it against the recent bars.
Revenue growth is the business-expansion evidence behind the valuation read. A five-year revenue CAGR of 1.85% helps show how much of the valuation story is coming from company growth instead of only multiple expansion.
ADM EPS
EPS history checks whether reported earnings are keeping pace with the market multiple.
Five-year EPS CAGR: -6.73%. This is endpoint-to-endpoint from the fiscal years shown — a depressed or negative start year can inflate it, so read it against the recent bars.
A five-year EPS CAGR of -6.73% is the clearest support figure for a P/E-based conclusion. If EPS growth slows while the multiple remains elevated, the article should become more cautious after refresh.
Margin Quality
Margin quality is the bridge between sales growth and earnings value. Net margin is 2.16% and price-to-sales is 0.48x, so this section reads profitability beside the sales multiple. A richer sales multiple is easier to defend when profitability is durable. If margins are already elevated, the valuation read should leave room for pressure even when the recent earnings record looks strong.
ADM net margin
Net margin shows whether the company has enough profitability quality to support its valuation.
Net margin (TTM): 2.16%. The bars below are annual fiscal years.
Net margin of 2.16% is a quality signal, not a valuation verdict by itself. It matters because a premium multiple is more defensible when margins are structurally strong and less defensible when margins are peaking.
Bull/Bear Valuation Case
The bull case is that revenue growth, EPS growth, and margin quality continue to support the current multiple. The bear case is that the P/E ratio and fair-value gap ask too much of the business if growth slows or margins normalize. Keeping both cases visible prevents the valuation note from becoming either a price chart recap or a model-output recap.
Bull and bear case
Valuation support
- Five-year revenue CAGR of 1.85% and five-year EPS CAGR of -6.73% support the business case.
- Net margin of 2.16% is the quality check behind the multiple.
Valuation pressure
- A P/E ratio of 22.13x can become demanding if EPS growth slows.
- The analyst-DCF (FMP) margin of safety at -2.08% should change the valuation read if it deteriorates after refresh.
What Could Change The View
The valuation read should change if the third-party DCF (FMP) estimate moves, if the latest close moves materially toward or away from that reference of $79.08, or if revenue and EPS growth break from the stored trend. The dated article snapshot above is the basis for this note; newer figures appear only in the separately labeled current snapshot.
Final Read
The final read is that Archer-Daniels-Midland Company needs valuation support from more than one place: the market multiple, the analyst-DCF (FMP) reference, growth, and margin quality all have to keep pointing in the same direction. Every figure in this research note is checked against data we compute and store from the company's reported filings. It is general research context only, not personalized investment advice or a buy or sell call.
FAQ
Is ADM fairly valued?
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company trades at 22.13x trailing earnings, while the price gap versus the third-party DCF (FMP) estimate is -2.08%. Read those references alongside five-year revenue CAGR of 1.85% and five-year EPS CAGR of -6.73%; none is a standalone verdict.
What valuation metric matters most for ADM?
This article anchors on P/E, fair value, margin of safety, price-to-sales, earnings yield, revenue growth, and EPS growth. No single metric is treated as a recommendation.
How often should this ADM valuation view refresh?
Numbers here are as of August 19, 2026 — the note's dated snapshot. A note whose figures can no longer be verified against the company's reported data is corrected or unpublished rather than left stale.
What would change our mind
- A material move away from the analyst-DCF (FMP) reference of $79.08.
- A break in five-year EPS support, currently -6.73%.
- Margin quality drifting away from the latest net margin of 2.16%.
The bottom line
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company valuation research note from TGMCharts Research, grounded in a dated fundamentals snapshot, chart exhibits, and linked source facts.
Read next: ADM fundamentalsContinue with Archer-Daniels-Midland Company's full stock page.How we checked this researchShowHide
Data snapshot · By TGMCharts Research.
Every number in this note comes from data we compute and store ourselves from the company's reported figures, plus verbatim excerpts from its SEC filings. When a value isn't available we say so — we never fill gaps with estimates.
Latest filing excerpt
10-Q · filed 2026-08-04 · period 2026-06-30 · SEC EDGAR source
- “Total segment operating profit (a non-GAAP measure) increased $620 million, from $830 million to $1.5 billion, driven by higher results across all three reportable segments.”
- “Revenues increased $1.5 billion to $22.7 billion, driven by Ag Services and Oilseeds segment revenues reflecting higher sales prices of oils, soybeans, and biodiesel ($2.0 billion), partially offset by lower sales volumes of corn and soybeans ($356 million).”
- “Nutrition segment revenues decreased primarily due to lower sales volumes ($95 million) reflecting portfolio actions and the formation of the Akralos Holding Company LLC joint venture, partially offset by higher sales prices.”
- “Cost of products sold increased $950 million to $20.7 billion, primarily driven by higher commodity and freight costs.”
Source pages
Exhibit sources
Research trail
Every number, checked
Every numeric or dated claim in this note was checked against our stored company data before publishing — each figure below links to the page it comes from.