Why we don't show a single “fair value” for ZETA
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($8.28) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.2% | $5.50 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.2% | $6.80 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.2% | $8.28 |
Current Price
$32.63
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$6.80
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ZETA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $73.3M · 0.25B shares · net cash $122.7M
Estimated Fair Value
$6.80
-79.1% vs $32.63
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $32.63; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.2% | $7.95 | $8.39 | $8.88 | $9.46 | $10.13 |
| 10.2% | $7.02 | $7.34 | $7.71 | $8.12 | $8.60 |
| 11.2% | $6.28 | $6.53 | $6.80 | $7.12 | $7.47 |
| 12.2% | $5.68 | $5.87 | $6.09 | $6.33 | $6.60 |
| 13.2% | $5.18 | $5.34 | $5.51 | $5.71 | $5.92 |
