Why we don't show a single “fair value” for ZETA
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($8.51) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$28.24 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +59.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.0% | $5.61 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.0% | $6.97 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.0% | $8.51 |
Current Price
$28.24
Market-Implied Growth
+59.2%/yr
vs +30.3% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$6.97
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ZETA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $73.3M · 0.25B shares · net cash $122.7M
Estimated Fair Value
$6.97
-75.3% vs $28.24
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $28.24; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0% | $8.17 | $8.63 | $9.16 | $9.78 | $10.50 |
| 10.0% | $7.19 | $7.53 | $7.92 | $8.36 | $8.87 |
| 11.0% | $6.41 | $6.67 | $6.97 | $7.30 | $7.67 |
| 12.0% | $5.79 | $5.99 | $6.22 | $6.47 | $6.76 |
| 13.0% | $5.27 | $5.44 | $5.62 | $5.82 | $6.04 |
