TGM's two-stage DCF values Xylem Inc. (XYL) between $48.15 and $85.84 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $63.49. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.1%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$106.83 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +22.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.1% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 6.5%/yr | 10.1% | $48.15 |
| Base case | 9.5%/yr | 9.1% | $63.49 |
| Optimistic | 12.5%/yr | 8.1% | $85.84 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $144.73 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$106.83
Market-Implied Growth
+22.3%/yr
vs +7.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$48.15 – $85.84
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for XYL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $738.0M · 0.23B shares · net debt $463.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$63.49
-40.6% vs $106.83
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 9.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $106.83; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.1% | $78.36 | $85.02 | $93.12 | $103 | $116 |
| 8.1% | $65.71 | $70.28 | $75.65 | $82.06 | $89.87 |
| 9.1% | $56.41 | $59.70 | $63.49 | $67.88 | $73.06 |
| 10.1% | $49.29 | $51.76 | $54.54 | $57.71 | $61.36 |
| 11.1% | $43.67 | $45.57 | $47.69 | $50.07 | $52.75 |
