TGM's two-stage DCF values Xylem Inc. (XYL) between $49.24 and $87.34 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $64.78. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.2%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$119.75 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +26.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.2% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 7.8%/yr | 10.2% | $49.24 |
| Base case | 10.8%/yr | 9.2% | $64.78 |
| Optimistic | 13.8%/yr | 8.2% | $87.34 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $144.85 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$119.75
Market-Implied Growth
+26.2%/yr
vs +9.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$49.24 – $87.34
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for XYL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $738.0M · 0.24B shares · net debt $463.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$64.78
-45.9% vs $119.75
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 10.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $119.75; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.2% | $79.81 | $86.48 | $94.56 | $105 | $117 |
| 8.2% | $67.06 | $71.65 | $77.04 | $83.46 | $91.24 |
| 9.2% | $57.64 | $60.96 | $64.78 | $69.20 | $74.40 |
| 10.2% | $50.41 | $52.90 | $55.72 | $58.93 | $62.60 |
| 11.2% | $44.68 | $46.61 | $48.76 | $51.17 | $53.89 |
