Weyerhaeuser Company (WY) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for WY
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($9.56) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$25.31 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +26.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.7% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.7% | $2.86 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 8.7% | $5.20 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 7.7% | $9.56 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $13.18 | |
Current Price
$25.31
Market-Implied Growth
+26.2%/yr
vs -3.6% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$5.20
model output — not a price target
WY DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for WY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $547.0M · 0.72B shares · net debt $5.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$4.99
-80.3% vs $25.31
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $25.31; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.7% | $8.32 | $9.38 | $10.69 | $12.35 | $14.52 |
| 7.7% | $5.82 | $6.49 | $7.29 | $8.26 | $9.46 |
| 8.7% | $4.01 | $4.47 | $4.99 | $5.61 | $6.34 |
| 9.7% | $2.65 | $2.97 | $3.33 | $3.74 | $4.23 |
| 10.7% | $1.58 | $1.81 | $2.07 | $2.36 | $2.70 |
About Weyerhaeuser Company
Established in 1900, Weyerhaeuser Company holds a prominent global position as one of the largest private proprietors of timberlands. The company oversees or owns approximately 11 million acres of forested land in the United States, complemented by additional timberlands in Canada managed under long-term licenses. These extensive holdings are cultivated responsibly, in full compliance with internationally accepted sustainable forestry criteria. Beyond its land stewardship, Weyerhaeuser is also a leading producer of wood-based goods throughout North America. Operating as a real estate investment trust (REIT), the firm achieved net sales of $7.5 billion in 2020. Its approximately 9,400 employees cater to a worldwide customer base, and Weyerhaeuser's commitment to environmental, social, and governance principles is acknowledged by its inclusion in the Dow Jones Sustainability North America Index. The company's common stock is available for trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker WY.
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Paper, Lumber & Forest Products
- CEO
- Devin W. Stockfish