TGM's two-stage DCF values The Williams Companies, Inc. (WMB) between $12.52 and $47.15 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $25.84. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$71.95 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +22.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.5%/yr | 8.5% | $12.52 |
| Base case | 6.5%/yr | 7.5% | $25.84 |
| Optimistic | 9.5%/yr | 6.5% | $47.15 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 10, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $55.38 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$71.95
Market-Implied Growth
+22.5%/yr
vs +6.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$12.52 – $47.15
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for WMB (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.5B · 1.22B shares · net debt $29.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$25.84
-64.1% vs $71.95
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $71.95; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $40.79 | $48.89 | $59.70 | $74.82 | $97.48 |
| 6.5% | $27.59 | $32.46 | $38.53 | $46.34 | $56.75 |
| 7.5% | $18.80 | $22.00 | $25.84 | $30.53 | $36.39 |
| 8.5% | $12.53 | $14.78 | $17.39 | $20.48 | $24.18 |
| 9.5% | $7.84 | $9.48 | $11.36 | $13.53 | $16.05 |