TGM's two-stage DCF values Willdan Group, Inc. (WLDN) between $55.05 and $91.65 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $70.28. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.1%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$73.91 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +16.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.1% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 12.3%/yr | 11.1% | $55.05 |
| Base case | 15.3%/yr | 10.1% | $70.28 |
| Optimistic | 18.3%/yr | 9.1% | $91.65 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $131.25 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$73.91
Market-Implied Growth
+16.6%/yr
vs +15.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$55.05 – $91.65
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for WLDN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $46.5M · 0.02B shares · net cash $17.5M
Estimated Fair Value
$70.28
-4.9% vs $73.91
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 15.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $73.91; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.1% | $84.37 | $90.13 | $96.91 | $105 | $115 |
| 9.1% | $72.64 | $76.78 | $81.55 | $87.10 | $93.63 |
| 10.1% | $63.66 | $66.77 | $70.28 | $74.27 | $78.87 |
| 11.1% | $56.59 | $58.98 | $61.65 | $64.64 | $68.02 |
| 12.1% | $50.88 | $52.76 | $54.85 | $57.15 | $59.73 |
