TGM's two-stage DCF values Waystar Holding Corp. (WAY) between $9.14 and $24.60 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $15.24. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$26.40 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +27.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 14.3%/yr | 8.5% | $9.14 |
| Base case | 17.3%/yr | 7.5% | $15.24 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $24.60 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $122.27 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$26.40
Market-Implied Growth
+27.4%/yr
Model Scenario Range
$9.14 – $24.60
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for WAY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $113.9M · 0.19B shares · net debt $1.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$15.24
-42.3% vs $26.40
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 17.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $26.40; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $22.34 | $26.18 | $31.30 | $38.46 | $49.21 |
| 6.5% | $16.08 | $18.38 | $21.25 | $24.95 | $29.87 |
| 7.5% | $11.92 | $13.43 | $15.24 | $17.46 | $20.22 |
| 8.5% | $8.96 | $10.01 | $11.25 | $12.70 | $14.45 |
| 9.5% | $6.74 | $7.52 | $8.40 | $9.42 | $10.61 |
