TGM's two-stage DCF values Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) between $335.38 and $644.94 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $454.53. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$524.11 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +18.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 12.0%/yr | 8.5% | $335.38 |
| Base case | 15.0%/yr | 7.5% | $454.53 |
| Optimistic | 18.0%/yr | 6.5% | $644.94 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $356.55 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$524.11
Market-Implied Growth
+18.6%/yr
vs +16.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$335.38 – $644.94
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for VRTX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $3.2B · 0.25B shares · net cash $3.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$454.53
-13.3% vs $524.11
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 15.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $524.11; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $592 | $667 | $766 | $905 | $1113 |
| 6.5% | $471 | $515 | $571 | $643 | $738 |
| 7.5% | $390 | $419 | $455 | $498 | $551 |
| 8.5% | $332 | $353 | $377 | $405 | $439 |
| 9.5% | $290 | $305 | $322 | $342 | $365 |
