TGM's two-stage DCF values Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) between $319.97 and $614.44 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $433.30. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$477.36 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +16.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 10.8%/yr | 8.5% | $319.97 |
| Base case | 13.8%/yr | 7.5% | $433.30 |
| Optimistic | 16.8%/yr | 6.5% | $614.44 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $392.63 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$477.36
Market-Implied Growth
+16.2%/yr
vs +4.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$319.97 – $614.44
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for VRTX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $3.2B · 0.25B shares · net cash $3.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$433.30
-9.2% vs $477.36
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 13.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $477.36; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $564 | $634 | $728 | $860 | $1058 |
| 6.5% | $449 | $491 | $544 | $612 | $702 |
| 7.5% | $372 | $400 | $433 | $474 | $525 |
| 8.5% | $318 | $337 | $360 | $387 | $419 |
| 9.5% | $277 | $291 | $307 | $326 | $348 |
