TGM's two-stage DCF values Viemed Healthcare, Inc. (VMD) between $4.79 and $8.00 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $6.23. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.3%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$9.33 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +28.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.3% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 10.3% | $4.79 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 9.3% | $6.23 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.3% | $8.00 |
Current Price
$9.33
Market-Implied Growth
+28.6%/yr
vs +20.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$4.79 – $8.00
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for VMD (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $8.4M · 0.04B shares · net cash $1.1M
Estimated Fair Value
$6.23
-33.2% vs $9.33
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $9.33; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.3% | $7.66 | $8.28 | $9.04 | $9.97 | $11.14 |
| 8.3% | $6.45 | $6.88 | $7.39 | $7.99 | $8.72 |
| 9.3% | $5.56 | $5.87 | $6.23 | $6.65 | $7.14 |
| 10.3% | $4.87 | $5.11 | $5.37 | $5.68 | $6.02 |
| 11.3% | $4.33 | $4.51 | $4.71 | $4.94 | $5.20 |
