TGM's two-stage DCF values United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) between $62.37 and $120.77 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $82.91. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.2%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$114.79 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +8.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.2% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 10.2% | $62.37 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 9.2% | $82.91 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 8.2% | $120.77 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $167.74 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$114.79
Market-Implied Growth
+8.0%/yr
vs -8.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$62.37 – $120.77
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for UPS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $5.6B · 0.75B shares · net debt $22.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$82.91
-27.8% vs $114.79
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $114.79; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.2% | $107 | $118 | $131 | $147 | $168 |
| 8.2% | $86.59 | $94.02 | $103 | $113 | $126 |
| 9.2% | $71.35 | $76.74 | $82.91 | $90.07 | $98.48 |
| 10.2% | $59.62 | $63.67 | $68.24 | $73.43 | $79.40 |
| 11.2% | $50.30 | $53.44 | $56.94 | $60.85 | $65.26 |
