United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) DCF Valuation
Transparent DCF models put United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS)'s fair value in a range of $95.73 – $175.35 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $107.87 sits within that range — roughly fairly valued on these assumptions.
Reverse DCF: at today's $107.87, the market is pricing in roughly +6.3%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of -8.7%. The price is betting on acceleration above its track record.
Current Price
$107.87
Fair-Value Range
$95.73 – $175.35
Market-Implied Growth
+6.3%/yr
vs -8.7% 5Y actual
UPS DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $6.3B · 0.85B shares · net debt $22.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$95.73
-11.3% vs $107.87
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $107.87; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $125 | $133 | $142 | $154 | $167 |
| 9.0% | $104 | $109 | $115 | $123 | $131 |
| 10.0% | $87.64 | $91.43 | $95.73 | $101 | $106 |
| 11.0% | $74.79 | $77.57 | $80.68 | $84.17 | $88.14 |
| 12.0% | $64.43 | $66.52 | $68.83 | $71.39 | $74.26 |
About United Parcel Service, Inc.
United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) stands as a leading global entity in shipping and logistics, delivering an extensive array of services such as parcel and document conveyance, transportation of goods, and supply chain management. The corporation structures its widespread operations into two principal divisions: U.S. Domestic Package and International Package. Within the United States, its Domestic Package unit specializes in time-guaranteed delivery for a range of items, including correspondence, critical paperwork, smaller parcels, and palletized cargo, utilizing both air and surface transportation methods. Conversely, the International Package division ensures reliable, precise-time international shipping services across extensive geographical areas, encompassing Europe, the Asia Pacific region, Canada, Latin America, the Indian sub-continent, the Middle East, and Africa. This segment notably features guaranteed express options for urgent consignments. Beyond core package services, UPS extends its reach to roughly 200 nations and jurisdictions, offering international air and sea cargo forwarding, expert customs clearance, distribution and after-sales support, alongside postal and advisory solutions. Furthermore, its diversified portfolio includes truckload transport brokering; tailored supply chain management for the healthcare and life sciences sectors; sophisticated shipping, tracking, and invoicing technologies; and a suite of financial and insurance offerings. Supporting these extensive operations is an impressive operational fleet of around 121,000 vehicles, comprising package cars, vans, tractors, and motorcycles. Additionally, it possesses 59,000 specialized containers integral for cargo transport aboard its aircraft. Established in 1907, United Parcel Service, Inc. has its corporate headquarters situated in Atlanta, Georgia.
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Integrated Freight & Logistics
- CEO
- Carol Tome