Why we don't show a single “fair value” for U
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($12.58) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$42.75 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +57.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 13.9%/yr | 12.5% | $7.65 |
| Base case | 16.9%/yr | 11.5% | $9.75 |
| Optimistic | 19.9%/yr | 10.5% | $12.58 |
Current Price
$42.75
Market-Implied Growth
+57.6%/yr
vs +16.9% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$9.75
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for U (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $226.0M · 0.44B shares · net debt $240.5M
Estimated Fair Value
$9.75
-77.2% vs $42.75
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 16.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $42.75; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $11.56 | $12.22 | $12.98 | $13.85 | $14.87 |
| 10.5% | $10.09 | $10.59 | $11.16 | $11.80 | $12.53 |
| 11.5% | $8.92 | $9.31 | $9.75 | $10.23 | $10.78 |
| 12.5% | $7.97 | $8.28 | $8.62 | $9.00 | $9.42 |
| 13.5% | $7.18 | $7.43 | $7.71 | $8.01 | $8.34 |
