TGM's two-stage DCF values Mammoth Energy Services, Inc. (TUSK) between $3.79 and $4.75 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $4.14. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10%) reflects its beta.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 11.0% | $3.79 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 10.0% | $4.14 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 9.0% | $4.75 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $1.80 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$2.91
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Model Scenario Range
$3.79 – $4.75
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TUSK (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $7.3M · 0.05B shares · net cash $102.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$4.14
+42.1% vs $2.91
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $2.91; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $4.52 | $4.68 | $4.87 | $5.09 | $5.36 |
| 9.0% | $4.20 | $4.31 | $4.44 | $4.60 | $4.78 |
| 10.0% | $3.95 | $4.04 | $4.14 | $4.25 | $4.37 |
| 11.0% | $3.76 | $3.83 | $3.90 | $3.98 | $4.07 |
| 12.0% | $3.60 | $3.65 | $3.71 | $3.78 | $3.85 |
