TGM's two-stage DCF values TotalEnergies SE (TTE) between $144.93 and $293.36 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $202.05. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$86.35 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -11.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.6%/yr | 8.5% | $144.93 |
| Base case | 6.6%/yr | 7.5% | $202.05 |
| Optimistic | 9.6%/yr | 6.5% | $293.36 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 28, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $224.41 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$86.35
Market-Implied Growth
-11.1%/yr
vs +6.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$144.93 – $293.36
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TTE (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $19.5B · 2.23B shares · net debt $25.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$202.05
+134.0% vs $86.35
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $86.35; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $266 | $301 | $347 | $412 | $509 |
| 6.5% | $210 | $230 | $256 | $290 | $335 |
| 7.5% | $172 | $186 | $202 | $222 | $247 |
| 8.5% | $145 | $155 | $166 | $179 | $195 |
| 9.5% | $125 | $132 | $140 | $149 | $160 |
