Why we don't show a single “fair value” for TSM
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($125.31) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.0% | $83.86 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.0% | $103.26 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.0% | $125.31 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $138.16 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$439.00
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$103.26
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TSM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $21.7B · 5.19B shares · net cash $55.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$103.26
-76.5% vs $439.00
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $439.00; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0% | $120 | $127 | $135 | $143 | $154 |
| 10.0% | $106 | $111 | $117 | $123 | $130 |
| 11.0% | $95.30 | $99.06 | $103 | $108 | $113 |
| 12.0% | $86.37 | $89.33 | $92.60 | $96.22 | $100 |
| 13.0% | $79.03 | $81.41 | $84.01 | $86.86 | $90.01 |
