Tesla, Inc.(TSLA)
Auto - Manufacturers · Austin, TX
$368.16+0.00 (+0.00%)
Delayed quote: Sep 8, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Auto - Manufacturers · Austin, TX
Delayed quote: Sep 8, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for TSLA
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($36.17) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $24.17 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $29.83 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $36.17 |
Current Price
$368.16
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$29.83
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TSLA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $5.3B · 3.95B shares · net cash $8.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$29.83
-91.9% vs $368.16
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $368.16; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $34.74 | $36.54 | $38.60 | $40.97 | $43.73 |
| 10.5% | $30.76 | $32.12 | $33.66 | $35.39 | $37.37 |
| 11.5% | $27.59 | $28.65 | $29.83 | $31.15 | $32.62 |
| 12.5% | $25.01 | $25.86 | $26.78 | $27.81 | $28.94 |
| 13.5% | $22.87 | $23.56 | $24.30 | $25.12 | $26.01 |