A meaningful DCF fair value isn't available for Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP) — its free-cash-flow and net-debt profile makes a standard discounted-cash-flow model unreliable (common for loss-makers and high-net-debt or recently-public companies), and no analyst DCF is published. Explore your own assumptions with the editable model below.
What would today's price require?
$289.36 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +45.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.8% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.6%/yr | 8.8% | N/A |
| Base case | 6.6%/yr | 7.8% | $2.20 |
| Optimistic | 9.6%/yr | 6.8% | $35.14 |
Current Price
$289.36
Market-Implied Growth
+45.6%/yr
vs +6.6% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
N/A
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TRGP (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $755.0M · 0.21B shares · net debt $16.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$2.20
-99.2% vs $289.36
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $289.36; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.8% | $25.00 | $36.87 | $52.32 | $73.28 | $103 |
| 6.8% | $5.01 | $12.36 | $21.42 | $32.85 | $47.73 |
| 7.8% | N/A | N/A | $2.20 | $9.28 | $18.01 |
| 8.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
