A meaningful DCF fair value isn't available for Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP) — its free-cash-flow and net-debt profile makes a standard discounted-cash-flow model unreliable (common for loss-makers and high-net-debt or recently-public companies), and no analyst DCF is published. Explore your own assumptions with the editable model below.
What would today's price require?
$260.98 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +42.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.7% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.6%/yr | 8.7% | N/A |
| Base case | 6.6%/yr | 7.7% | $3.79 |
| Optimistic | 9.6%/yr | 6.7% | $37.93 |
Current Price
$260.98
Market-Implied Growth
+42.8%/yr
vs +6.6% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
N/A
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TRGP (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $755.0M · 0.21B shares · net debt $16.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$3.79
-98.5% vs $260.98
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $260.98; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.7% | $27.53 | $40.05 | $56.47 | $78.97 | $112 |
| 6.7% | $6.66 | $14.34 | $23.85 | $35.91 | $51.73 |
| 7.7% | N/A | N/A | $3.79 | $11.19 | $20.34 |
| 8.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | $1.04 |
| 9.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
