Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. (TR) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. (TR) between $24.48 and $46.34 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $32.89. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$37.94 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +14.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 7.4%/yr | 8.5% | $24.48 |
| Base case | 10.4%/yr | 7.5% | $32.89 |
| Optimistic | 13.4%/yr | 6.5% | $46.34 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $29.79 | |
Current Price
$37.94
Market-Implied Growth
+14.0%/yr
vs +11.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$24.48 – $46.34
model output — not a price target
TR DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TR (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $82.1M · 0.08B shares · net cash $117.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$43.46
+14.5% vs $37.94
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 10.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $37.94; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $59.33 | $65.81 | $74.45 | $86.54 | $105 |
| 6.5% | $46.71 | $50.41 | $55.04 | $60.99 | $68.93 |
| 7.5% | $38.35 | $40.67 | $43.46 | $46.86 | $51.12 |
| 8.5% | $32.43 | $33.98 | $35.79 | $37.92 | $40.49 |
| 9.5% | $28.03 | $29.11 | $30.35 | $31.77 | $33.44 |
About Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc.
Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. is a long-standing confectionery business that produces and markets a wide variety of sweet treats. Its operations extend across the United States, Canada, Mexico, and numerous other countries worldwide. The company is renowned for an extensive lineup of popular brands, such as Tootsie Roll, Tootsie Pops, Child's Play, Caramel Apple Pops, Charms, Blow-Pop, Charms Mini Pops, Cella's, Dots, Junior Mints, Charleston Chew, Sugar Daddy, Sugar Babies, Andes, Fluffy Stuff, Dubble Bubble, Razzles, Cry Baby, NIK-L-NIP, and Tutsi Pop. To distribute its products, Tootsie Roll utilizes a broad network of sales channels. These include direct sales to wholesale distributors of candy, food, and groceries, as well as major retail outlets like supermarkets, variety stores, dollar stores, chain grocers, drugstores, and discount chains. The company also supplies cooperative grocery associations, mass merchandisers, warehouse and membership club stores, vending machine operators, online merchants, the United States military, and charitable fundraising groups, often facilitated by food and grocery brokers. Founded in 1896, Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Food Confectioners
- CEO
- Ellen R. Gordon