TGM's two-stage DCF values Gentherm Incorporated (THRM) between $16.25 and $28.33 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $21.33. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.7%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$31.81 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +16.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.7% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4.4%/yr | 11.7% | $16.25 |
| Base case | 7.4%/yr | 10.7% | $21.33 |
| Optimistic | 10.4%/yr | 9.7% | $28.33 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $32.46 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$31.81
Market-Implied Growth
+16.6%/yr
vs +7.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$16.25 – $28.33
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for THRM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $48.7M · 0.03B shares · net debt $86.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$21.33
-33.0% vs $31.81
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 7.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $31.81; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.7% | $25.70 | $27.40 | $29.37 | $31.69 | $34.45 |
| 9.7% | $22.10 | $23.36 | $24.79 | $26.43 | $28.33 |
| 10.7% | $19.29 | $20.25 | $21.33 | $22.54 | $23.92 |
| 11.7% | $17.04 | $17.79 | $18.62 | $19.55 | $20.58 |
| 12.7% | $15.19 | $15.79 | $16.45 | $17.18 | $17.98 |
