Why we don't show a single “fair value” for TECH
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($28.83) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$72.15 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +36.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.4% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.6%/yr | 11.4% | $17.02 |
| Base case | 5.6%/yr | 10.4% | $21.96 |
| Optimistic | 8.6%/yr | 9.4% | $28.83 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 11, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $23.29 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$72.15
Market-Implied Growth
+36.0%/yr
vs +3.7% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$21.96
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TECH (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $246.3M · 0.16B shares · net debt $183.8M
Estimated Fair Value
$21.96
-69.6% vs $72.15
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $72.15; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.4% | $26.26 | $27.97 | $29.97 | $32.33 | $35.18 |
| 9.4% | $22.70 | $23.95 | $25.38 | $27.03 | $28.96 |
| 10.4% | $19.95 | $20.89 | $21.96 | $23.16 | $24.54 |
| 11.4% | $17.75 | $18.49 | $19.31 | $20.22 | $21.25 |
| 12.4% | $15.96 | $16.55 | $17.19 | $17.91 | $18.69 |
