Why we don't show a single “fair value” for TECH
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($30.20) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$72.61 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +35.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.4% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.5%/yr | 11.4% | $18.44 |
| Base case | 5.5%/yr | 10.4% | $23.36 |
| Optimistic | 8.5%/yr | 9.4% | $30.20 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $22.56 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$72.61
Market-Implied Growth
+35.6%/yr
vs -3.1% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$23.36
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TECH (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $246.3M · 0.16B shares · net cash $49.8M
Estimated Fair Value
$23.36
-67.8% vs $72.61
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $72.61; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.4% | $27.64 | $29.34 | $31.33 | $33.68 | $36.51 |
| 9.4% | $24.10 | $25.34 | $26.76 | $28.41 | $30.32 |
| 10.4% | $21.36 | $22.30 | $23.36 | $24.56 | $25.93 |
| 11.4% | $19.17 | $19.90 | $20.72 | $21.63 | $22.65 |
| 12.4% | $17.39 | $17.97 | $18.62 | $19.32 | $20.11 |
