TGM's two-stage DCF values TransAct Technologies Incorporated (TACT) between $5.99 and $8.89 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $7.19. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.1%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$4.72 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -4.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.1% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 7.2%/yr | 11.1% | $5.99 |
| Base case | 10.2%/yr | 10.1% | $7.19 |
| Optimistic | 13.2%/yr | 9.1% | $8.89 |
Current Price
$4.72
Market-Implied Growth
-4.5%/yr
vs +10.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$5.99 – $8.89
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TACT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $3.1M · 0.01B shares · net cash $17.4M
Estimated Fair Value
$7.19
+52.4% vs $4.72
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 10.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $4.72; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.1% | $8.29 | $8.73 | $9.26 | $9.88 | $10.64 |
| 9.1% | $7.38 | $7.70 | $8.07 | $8.50 | $9.00 |
| 10.1% | $6.68 | $6.92 | $7.19 | $7.50 | $7.86 |
| 11.1% | $6.13 | $6.32 | $6.53 | $6.76 | $7.02 |
| 12.1% | $5.69 | $5.84 | $6.00 | $6.18 | $6.38 |
