Why we don't show a single “fair value” for SYNA
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($27.55) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$119.39 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +41.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 12.5% | $15.09 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 11.5% | $19.56 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 10.5% | $27.55 |
Current Price
$119.39
Market-Implied Growth
+41.6%/yr
vs -1.4% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$19.56
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SYNA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $103.8M · 0.04B shares · net debt $394.8M
Estimated Fair Value
$19.56
-83.6% vs $119.39
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $119.39; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $24.30 | $26.03 | $28.01 | $30.28 | $32.93 |
| 10.5% | $20.47 | $21.78 | $23.26 | $24.93 | $26.83 |
| 11.5% | $17.40 | $18.42 | $19.56 | $20.83 | $22.26 |
| 12.5% | $14.89 | $15.71 | $16.61 | $17.60 | $18.70 |
| 13.5% | $12.80 | $13.46 | $14.19 | $14.98 | $15.85 |
