TGM's two-stage DCF values Stagwell Inc. (STGW) between $8.09 and $16.05 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $11.75. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.2%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$8.51 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +12.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.2% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 11.2% | $8.09 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 10.2% | $11.75 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 9.2% | $16.05 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $14.20 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$8.51
Market-Implied Growth
+12.4%/yr
vs +16.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$8.09 – $16.05
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for STGW (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $168.1M · 0.25B shares · net debt $1.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$11.75
+38.1% vs $8.51
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $8.51; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.2% | $15.16 | $16.54 | $18.16 | $20.09 | $22.43 |
| 9.2% | $12.33 | $13.33 | $14.47 | $15.80 | $17.36 |
| 10.2% | $10.16 | $10.91 | $11.75 | $12.72 | $13.82 |
| 11.2% | $8.45 | $9.03 | $9.67 | $10.39 | $11.20 |
| 12.2% | $7.06 | $7.52 | $8.02 | $8.58 | $9.20 |
