A meaningful DCF fair value isn't available for Snap Inc. (SNAP) — its free-cash-flow and net-debt profile makes a standard discounted-cash-flow model unreliable (common for loss-makers and high-net-debt or recently-public companies), and no analyst DCF is published. Explore your own assumptions with the editable model below.
What would today's price require?
$4.54 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +45.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.3% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 13.7%/yr | 10.3% | N/A |
| Base case | 16.7%/yr | 9.3% | $0.36 |
| Optimistic | 19.7%/yr | 8.3% |
| $1.08 |
Current Price
$4.54
Market-Implied Growth
+45.7%/yr
vs +16.7% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
N/A
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SNAP (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $137.0M · 1.69B shares · net debt $3.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$0.36
-92.2% vs $4.54
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 16.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $4.54; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.3% | $0.85 | $1.07 | $1.33 | $1.65 | $2.06 |
| 8.3% | $0.43 | $0.58 | $0.76 | $0.97 | $1.22 |
| 9.3% | $0.12 | $0.23 | $0.36 | $0.50 | $0.67 |
| 10.3% | N/A | N/A | $0.06 | $0.16 | $0.28 |
| 11.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
