Why we don't show a single “fair value” for SMTC
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($13.43) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 9.9%/yr | 12.5% | $7.22 |
| Base case | 12.9%/yr | 11.5% | $9.86 |
| Optimistic | 15.9%/yr | 10.5% | $13.43 |
Current Price
$194.88
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$9.86
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SMTC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $71.1M · 0.09B shares · net debt $296.1M
Estimated Fair Value
$9.86
-94.9% vs $194.88
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 12.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $194.88; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $12.10 | $12.92 | $13.86 | $14.94 | $16.20 |
| 10.5% | $10.28 | $10.91 | $11.61 | $12.40 | $13.30 |
| 11.5% | $8.84 | $9.32 | $9.86 | $10.46 | $11.13 |
| 12.5% | $7.66 | $8.04 | $8.47 | $8.93 | $9.45 |
| 13.5% | $6.68 | $6.99 | $7.33 | $7.70 | $8.11 |
