TGM's two-stage DCF values Siemens AG (SIEGY) between $44.20 and $89.28 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $63.24. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$149.78 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +22.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.1%/yr | 12.0% | $44.20 |
| Base case | 5.1%/yr | 11.0% | $63.24 |
| Optimistic | 8.1%/yr | 10.0% | $89.28 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 10, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $95.71 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$149.78
Market-Implied Growth
+22.2%/yr
vs +4.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$44.20 – $89.28
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SIEGY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $10.6B · 1.54B shares · net debt $44.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$63.24
-57.8% vs $149.78
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $149.78; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0% | $79.19 | $85.24 | $92.22 | $100 | $110 |
| 10.0% | $66.15 | $70.67 | $75.79 | $81.63 | $88.36 |
| 11.0% | $55.87 | $59.35 | $63.24 | $67.60 | $72.54 |
| 12.0% | $47.56 | $50.31 | $53.34 | $56.70 | $60.46 |
| 13.0% | $40.70 | $42.91 | $45.33 | $47.99 | $50.92 |
