TGM's two-stage DCF values Shoe Station Group Inc. (SHOE) between $21.77 and $30.96 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $25.05. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.8%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$12.82 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -19.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.8% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 11.8% | $21.77 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 10.8% | $25.05 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 9.8% | $30.96 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $26.76 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$12.82
Market-Implied Growth
-19.4%/yr
vs -0.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$21.77 – $30.96
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SHOE (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $46.5M · 0.03B shares · net cash $117.1M
Estimated Fair Value
$25.05
+95.4% vs $12.82
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $12.82; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.8% | $28.64 | $30.02 | $31.61 | $33.48 | $35.70 |
| 9.8% | $25.70 | $26.72 | $27.89 | $29.22 | $30.76 |
| 10.8% | $23.39 | $24.18 | $25.05 | $26.04 | $27.17 |
| 11.8% | $21.53 | $22.15 | $22.83 | $23.59 | $24.44 |
| 12.8% | $20.00 | $20.50 | $21.04 | $21.64 | $22.30 |
