Why we don't show a single “fair value” for RUSHB
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($18.82) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$56.54 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +37.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.6% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4.7%/yr | 9.6% | $6.20 |
| Base case | 7.7%/yr | 8.6% | $11.26 |
| Optimistic | 10.7%/yr | 7.6% | $18.82 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $29.16 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$56.54
Market-Implied Growth
+37.4%/yr
vs +7.7% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$11.26
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for RUSHB (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $118.9M · 0.12B shares · net debt $1.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$11.26
-80.1% vs $56.54
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 7.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $56.54; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.6% | $16.35 | $18.75 | $21.73 | $25.54 | $30.58 |
| 7.6% | $11.97 | $13.57 | $15.47 | $17.78 | $20.66 |
| 8.6% | $8.84 | $9.96 | $11.26 | $12.80 | $14.63 |
| 9.6% | $6.48 | $7.31 | $8.25 | $9.33 | $10.58 |
| 10.6% | $4.64 | $5.27 | $5.98 | $6.77 | $7.68 |
