Why we don't show a single “fair value” for RUSHA
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($18.64) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$47.05 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +33.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.7% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4.7%/yr | 9.7% | $6.10 |
| Base case | 7.7%/yr | 8.7% | $11.15 |
| Optimistic | 10.7%/yr | 7.7% | $18.64 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $29.16 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$47.05
Market-Implied Growth
+33.2%/yr
vs +7.7% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$11.15
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for RUSHA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $118.9M · 0.12B shares · net debt $1.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$11.15
-76.3% vs $47.05
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 7.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $47.05; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.7% | $16.17 | $18.52 | $21.42 | $25.10 | $29.93 |
| 7.7% | $11.86 | $13.43 | $15.29 | $17.55 | $20.35 |
| 8.7% | $8.75 | $9.86 | $11.15 | $12.66 | $14.46 |
| 9.7% | $6.41 | $7.23 | $8.16 | $9.23 | $10.47 |
| 10.7% | $4.58 | $5.20 | $5.90 | $6.69 | $7.59 |
