TGM's two-stage DCF values Repay Holdings Corporation (RPAY) between $7.00 and $13.30 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $9.68. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$3.83 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -0.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 11.1%/yr | 12.5% | $7.00 |
| Base case | 14.1%/yr | 11.5% | $9.68 |
| Optimistic | 17.1%/yr | 10.5% | $13.30 |
Current Price
$3.83
Market-Implied Growth
-0.8%/yr
vs +14.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$7.00 – $13.30
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for RPAY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $65.0M · 0.09B shares · net debt $310.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$9.68
+152.7% vs $3.83
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 14.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $3.83; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $11.96 | $12.80 | $13.76 | $14.86 | $16.14 |
| 10.5% | $10.11 | $10.75 | $11.46 | $12.27 | $13.19 |
| 11.5% | $8.63 | $9.13 | $9.68 | $10.29 | $10.98 |
| 12.5% | $7.43 | $7.83 | $8.26 | $8.74 | $9.26 |
| 13.5% | $6.43 | $6.75 | $7.10 | $7.48 | $7.90 |
