Rambus Inc. (RMBS) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for RMBS
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($49.78) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$146.56 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +54.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $32.81 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $40.82 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $49.78 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $27.91 | |
Current Price
$146.56
Market-Implied Growth
+54.9%/yr
vs +16.5% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$40.82
model output — not a price target
RMBS DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for RMBS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $204.9M · 0.11B shares · net cash $164.2M
Estimated Fair Value
$65.77
-55.1% vs $146.56
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $146.56; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $81.54 | $85.19 | $89.37 | $94.18 | $99.80 |
| 10.5% | $70.41 | $73.05 | $76.01 | $79.38 | $83.23 |
| 11.5% | $61.63 | $63.59 | $65.77 | $68.20 | $70.94 |
| 12.5% | $54.57 | $56.06 | $57.69 | $59.50 | $61.51 |
| 13.5% | $48.78 | $49.93 | $51.18 | $52.55 | $54.06 |
About Rambus Inc.
Rambus Inc. is a global provider of semiconductor solutions, operating across key regions including the United States, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Europe, Canada, Singapore, and China. Their product portfolio encompasses advanced DDR memory interface chips, such as DDR5, DDR4, and DDR3, which are supplied to module manufacturers and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). Additionally, Rambus delivers silicon intellectual property (IP), offering interface and security solutions vital for moving and safeguarding data in sophisticated applications. They also provide physical interface and digital controller IP, enabling the creation of industry-leading, integrated memory and interconnect subsystems. The company further holds an extensive patent portfolio, encompassing innovations in memory architecture, high-speed serial link technologies, and security products. Rambus distributes its offerings via a direct sales team and a network of distributors. Established in 1990, Rambus Inc. maintains its corporate headquarters in San Jose, California.
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Semiconductors
- CEO
- Luc Seraphin