Why we don't show a single “fair value” for REAX
Even the conservative scenario ($42.40) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$16.83 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -13.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.1% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 9.1% | $42.40 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 8.1% | $56.01 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 7.1% | $73.97 |
Current Price
$16.83
Market-Implied Growth
-13.2%/yr
vs +120.0% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$56.01
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for REAX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $33.5M · 0.02B shares · net cash $59.6M
Estimated Fair Value
$56.01
+232.8% vs $16.83
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $16.83; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.1% | $70.89 | $78.33 | $87.82 | $100 | $118 |
| 7.1% | $57.95 | $62.68 | $68.44 | $75.59 | $84.72 |
| 8.1% | $48.97 | $52.20 | $56.01 | $60.56 | $66.10 |
| 9.1% | $42.38 | $44.71 | $47.38 | $50.50 | $54.17 |
| 10.1% | $37.34 | $39.08 | $41.05 | $43.29 | $45.87 |
