Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) DCF Valuation
A meaningful DCF fair value isn't available for Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) — its free-cash-flow and net-debt profile makes a standard discounted-cash-flow model unreliable (common for loss-makers and high-net-debt or recently-public companies), and no analyst DCF is published. Explore your own assumptions with the editable model below.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | N/A |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | N/A |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $7.15 |
Current Price
$320.95
Market-Implied Growth
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Base-Case Model Value
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RCL DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for RCL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $908.0M · 0.27B shares · net debt $21.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$35.72
-88.9% vs $320.95
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $320.95; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $63.89 | $70.42 | $77.87 | $86.48 | $96.52 |
| 10.5% | $44.00 | $48.71 | $54.02 | $60.03 | $66.90 |
| 11.5% | $28.32 | $31.83 | $35.72 | $40.06 | $44.96 |
| 12.5% | $15.70 | $18.36 | $21.28 | $24.51 | $28.10 |
| 13.5% | $5.35 | $7.41 | $9.65 | $12.10 | $14.80 |
About Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. is a prominent global operator within the cruise sector. The company manages several well-known cruise lines, such as Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises, Azamara, and Silversea Cruises. Through these brands, it offers a wide array of voyages that call upon approximately 1,000 different destinations across the globe. As of February 25, 2022, its expansive fleet comprised 61 vessels. Established in 1968, the company's corporate headquarters are situated in Miami, Florida.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Travel Services
- CEO
- Jason T. Liberty