TGM's two-stage DCF values Qualys, Inc. (QLYS) between $157.42 and $302.60 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $213.30. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$193.31 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +10.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 9.5%/yr | 8.5% | $157.42 |
| Base case | 12.5%/yr | 7.5% | $213.30 |
| Optimistic | 15.5%/yr | 6.5% | $302.60 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 2, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $224.42 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$193.31
Market-Implied Growth
+10.1%/yr
vs +12.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$157.42 – $302.60
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for QLYS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $233.8M · 0.04B shares · net cash $198.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$213.30
+10.3% vs $193.31
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 12.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $193.31; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $277 | $312 | $358 | $423 | $520 |
| 6.5% | $221 | $242 | $268 | $301 | $345 |
| 7.5% | $183 | $197 | $213 | $233 | $258 |
| 8.5% | $156 | $166 | $177 | $190 | $206 |
| 9.5% | $136 | $143 | $151 | $161 | $171 |