Why we don't show a single “fair value” for Q
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($62.13) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$135.67 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +32.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 5.5%/yr | 12.5% | $32.57 |
| Base case | 8.5%/yr | 11.5% | $45.14 |
| Optimistic | 11.5%/yr | 10.5% | $62.13 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 5, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $25.88 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$135.67
Market-Implied Growth
+32.5%/yr
Base-Case Model Value
$45.14
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for Q (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $906.0M · 0.21B shares · net debt $3.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$45.14
-66.7% vs $135.67
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 8.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $135.67; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $55.57 | $59.39 | $63.74 | $68.76 | $74.61 |
| 10.5% | $47.12 | $50.02 | $53.27 | $56.95 | $61.16 |
| 11.5% | $40.37 | $42.63 | $45.14 | $47.94 | $51.08 |
| 12.5% | $34.87 | $36.67 | $38.65 | $40.83 | $43.25 |
| 13.5% | $30.29 | $31.76 | $33.35 | $35.09 | $36.99 |
