Why we don't show a single “fair value” for PWR
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($236.86) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$680.20 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +50.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.1% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 11.1% | $132.36 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 10.1% | $180.34 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 9.1% | $236.86 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 4, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $139.59 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$680.20
Market-Implied Growth
+50.9%/yr
vs +30.6% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$180.34
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PWR (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.3B · 0.15B shares · net debt $5.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$180.34
-73.5% vs $680.20
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $680.20; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.1% | $225 | $244 | $265 | $291 | $322 |
| 9.1% | $188 | $201 | $216 | $234 | $255 |
| 10.1% | $159 | $169 | $180 | $193 | $208 |
| 11.1% | $137 | $144 | $153 | $162 | $173 |
| 12.1% | $119 | $125 | $131 | $139 | $147 |
