Why we don't show a single “fair value” for PNTG
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($17.58) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$40.73 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +43.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.4% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 11.4% | $9.31 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 10.4% | $13.13 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 9.4% | $17.58 |
Current Price
$40.73
Market-Implied Growth
+43.7%/yr
vs +21.1% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$13.13
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PNTG (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $25.6M · 0.03B shares · net debt $156.8M
Estimated Fair Value
$13.13
-67.8% vs $40.73
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $40.73; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.4% | $16.65 | $18.05 | $19.69 | $21.63 | $23.96 |
| 9.4% | $13.74 | $14.76 | $15.93 | $17.28 | $18.85 |
| 10.4% | $11.49 | $12.26 | $13.13 | $14.12 | $15.24 |
| 11.4% | $9.71 | $10.31 | $10.97 | $11.72 | $12.55 |
| 12.4% | $8.26 | $8.74 | $9.26 | $9.84 | $10.48 |
