TGM's two-stage DCF values Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) between $84.96 and $192.32 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $126.27. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$185.64 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +13.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.8%/yr | 8.5% | $84.96 |
| Base case | 5.8%/yr | 7.5% | $126.27 |
| Optimistic | 8.8%/yr | 6.5% | $192.32 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 11, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $193.13 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$185.64
Market-Implied Growth
+13.6%/yr
vs +4.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$84.96 – $192.32
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $10.2B · 1.56B shares · net debt $44.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$126.27
-32.0% vs $185.64
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $185.64; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $172 | $198 | $231 | $278 | $348 |
| 6.5% | $132 | $147 | $166 | $190 | $222 |
| 7.5% | $104 | $114 | $126 | $141 | $159 |
| 8.5% | $85.09 | $92.04 | $100 | $110 | $121 |
| 9.5% | $70.57 | $75.66 | $81.48 | $88.18 | $95.98 |
