Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) between $85.73 and $193.84 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $127.33. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$180.77 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +13.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.0%/yr | 8.5% | $85.73 |
| Base case | 6.0%/yr | 7.5% | $127.33 |
| Optimistic | 9.0%/yr | 6.5% | $193.84 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $209.25 | |
Current Price
$180.77
Market-Implied Growth
+13.0%/yr
vs +4.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$85.73 – $193.84
model output — not a price target
PM DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $10.2B · 1.56B shares · net debt $44.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$148.91
-17.6% vs $180.77
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $180.77; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $213 | $239 | $273 | $321 | $394 |
| 6.5% | $162 | $177 | $195 | $219 | $251 |
| 7.5% | $129 | $138 | $149 | $162 | $179 |
| 8.5% | $105 | $111 | $118 | $126 | $137 |
| 9.5% | $86.71 | $91.03 | $95.96 | $102 | $108 |
About Philip Morris International Inc.
Philip Morris International Inc. functions as a prominent tobacco enterprise, actively working toward a smoke-free future. The company is strategically diversifying its long-term product range to incorporate items beyond traditional tobacco and nicotine. Its primary business involves both conventional cigarettes and an expanding array of smoke-free alternatives, such as innovative heat-not-burn devices, vapor products, and oral nicotine solutions. These offerings are distributed in markets worldwide, with the exception of the United States. The smoke-free portfolio includes brands like HEETS (encompassing Creations, Dimensions, Marlboro variants), Parliament HeatSticks, and TEREA, in addition to KT&G-licensed brands Fiit and Miix. For conventional cigarettes, the company sells internationally recognized brands such as Marlboro, Parliament, Bond Street, Chesterfield, L&M, Lark, and Philip Morris. Regionally, it also owns major cigarette brands like Dji Sam Soe, Sampoerna A, and Sampoerna U in Indonesia, and Fortune and Jackpot in the Philippines. PMI's smoke-free innovations are currently available across 71 global markets. Established in 1987, Philip Morris International Inc. is headquartered in New York, New York.
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Tobacco
- CEO
- Jacek Olczak