TGM's two-stage DCF values Parker-Hannifin Corporation (PH) between $304.38 and $562.70 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $410.97. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.7%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$955.87 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +29.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.7% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 6.5%/yr | 10.7% | $304.38 |
| Base case | 9.5%/yr | 9.7% | $410.97 |
| Optimistic | 12.5%/yr | 8.7% | $562.70 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $686.06 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$955.87
Market-Implied Growth
+29.3%/yr
vs +10.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$304.38 – $562.70
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PH (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $3.2B · 0.13B shares · net debt $8.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$410.97
-57.0% vs $955.87
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 9.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $955.87; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.7% | $510 | $552 | $601 | $662 | $736 |
| 8.7% | $427 | $456 | $491 | $531 | $579 |
| 9.7% | $364 | $386 | $411 | $440 | $473 |
| 10.7% | $315 | $332 | $351 | $372 | $396 |
| 11.7% | $276 | $289 | $304 | $320 | $338 |
